Changing the way we talk about how much food we grow
Global population is rising. It is predicted to grow from seven billion to between nine-to-ten billion by 2050. If diets stay the same, and all food crops are used as food, this would mean food production would need to be increased by about 30 percent to feed the planet’s inhabitants.
But diets aren’t staying the same. As incomes increase in countries like China and India, people are changing what they eat – more dairy, meat and fish, less grains.
And not all food crops are used for food. Some go to industrial uses, most notably in recent years to the production of biofuels for transportation (our cars). It’s not that much on a global scale; estimates run to about four percent of global calories. But it may be enough to alter the precarious balance between production and consumption.
So rather than a 30 percent increase in food production, 70 percent more food will need to be produced over the next 35 years. Finding that additional 70% is going to be a major, some say impossible, challenge.
Most of the discussion of late has been about how to grow more food on less land—to increase the number of bushels or tonnes of food grown on each acre. But a recent report by the University of Minnesota proposes to radically change the way we look at agricultural yields to find a solution to this challenge. Rather than bushels/acre or tonnes/acre, the report calls for considering ‘people nourished/acre’ as a key measure of farmland productivity. Their analysis looks at both food calories (energy) as well as food protein.
This new measure shows that India, with relatively low average yields in bushels/acre, still manages to produce sufficient food for 2.4 people nourished/acre. The U.S., which has much higher yields in bushels/acre, manages only 2.2 people nourished/acre. China, on the other hand, feeds 3.4 people/acre on land in that country.
Not surprisingly, the report also shows that huge numbers of calories and protein are lost through the production and utilization of animal feed grains and additional amounts are lost to biofuels. Eliminating all use of food grains for feed and biofuels could, on its own, feed almost four billion more people. But it is very unlikely that people are going to stop eating grain fed meat entirely.
The report does suggest some more feasible changes, including:
- Shifting away from grain-fed beef and using these feed grains for pork and chicken could feed an additional 350 million people.
- Shifting away from all feed-based meat production to dairy and eggs only could feed an additional 850 million people.
- Reducing the consumption of grain-fed animal products by 50% could feed an additional two billion people. A trend in this direction has already started as a result of health concerns in rich countries
These are big changes, requiring significant shifts in eating habits and government policies. Each of us can do our part by reducing how much grain-fed meat we eat. Together with reducing food waste, our individual actions can make a significant contribution to ensuring adequate food for everyone.
